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处于垄断竞争市场的疫苗行业,三家巨头能否杀出重围
2020-01-08 00:49   来源:  www.myviphealth.com   评论:0 点击:

处于垄断竞争市场的疫苗行业,三家巨头能否杀出重围我们一直在寻求A股医药行业未来的投资方向,大致的选股

我们一直在寻求A股医药行业未来的投资方向,大致的选股思路是既受政策的影响比较小,又不失高成长性,那么疫苗领域就是其中一个很好的选股方向。从投资的角度来看,疫苗是医药行业里成本效益比最高的细分领域,相对来说安全性比较高。

We have been looking for the future investment direction of A-share pharmaceutical industry, the general idea of stock selection is that both by the policy impact is relatively small, without losing high growth, then the vaccine sector is one of the good stock selection direction. From an investment perspective, vaccines are the most cost-effective segment of the pharmaceutical industry and are relatively safe.

自2016年山东疫苗事件之后,政府很果断的对二类疫苗流通领域进行了“一票制”改革,在经历过业绩低谷之后,这两年疫苗板块已经回归到了比较正常的发展水平。特别是2019年12月31日,沃森生物的被称为“全球疫苗之王”的13价肺炎球菌多糖结合疫苗(商品名为沃安欣)获国家药品监督管理局批准上市,并且成为全球第二个、中国第一个自主研发的13价肺炎疫苗,打破了国外企业近20年的垄断,也引发了资本市场的热议。

根据EvaluatePharma数据,2017年全球疫苗市场规模达到亿美元,其中成人疫苗110亿美元,儿童疫苗167亿美元。其中,GSK、默沙东、辉瑞和赛诺菲四家巨头的全球疫苗市场占有率就超过了90%。2018年,全球药品百强品种中,疫苗占了5个,包括辉瑞公司的肺炎疫苗(销售额58亿美元)、默沙东的HPV疫苗(销售额31亿美元)、水痘疫苗(销售额18亿美元)以及赛诺菲的脊髓灰质炎疫苗(销售额近20亿美元)、流感疫苗(销售额19亿美元)。

The global vaccine market reached $100 million in 2017, including $11 billion for adult vaccines and $16.7 billion for children, according to Evaluate Pharma data. Among them, GSK, Mercadon, Pfizer and Sanofi have a global vaccine market share of more than 90%. In 2018, five of the world's top 100 drugs were vaccines, including Pfizer's pneumonia vaccine ($5.8 billion in sales), Mercadon's HPV vaccine ($3.1 billion in sales), varicella vaccine ($1.8 billion in sales) and Sanofi's polio vaccine (nearly $2 billion in sales), and flu vaccine ($1.9 billion in sales).

根据我国《疫苗流通和预防接种管理条例》,疫苗分为一类疫苗和二类疫苗。主要区别在于接种第一类疫苗由政府承担费用。接种第二类疫苗由公民自费并且自愿受种的其他疫苗。疫苗和血制品行业一样,都是采取签批发制度。

According to China's Regulations on the Administration of Vaccine Circulation and Vaccination, vaccines are divided into one type of vaccine and two types of vaccine. The main difference is that the government pays for the first type of vaccine. Other vaccines for which the second type of vaccination is at the citizen's own expense and voluntarily received. Vaccines, like the blood industry, are signed wholesale.

目前,我国疫苗市场主要分为跨国疫苗巨头、国有企业和民营企业三大阵营。从批签发数据显示,第一类疫苗主要由国有企业占据最大份额,民营企业的比重最近几年在逐渐增大;第二类疫苗的市场竞争则非常激烈,由民营企业占据较大份额。根据数据显示,国内疫苗市场规模发展为:2017年为210亿元,2018年为300亿元,2019年为270亿元。

At present, China's vaccine market is mainly divided into three camps: multinational vaccine giants, state-owned enterprises and private enterprises. According to the batch data, the first type of vaccine is dominated by state-owned enterprises, and the proportion of private enterprises is gradually increasing in recent years; the market competition for the second type of vaccine is very fierce, with private enterprises occupying a large share. According to the data, the scale of the domestic vaccine market has developed to 21 billion yuan in 2017,30 billion yuan in 2018 and 27 billion yuan in 2019.

正如前面所说,2016年经过山东疫苗事件之后,可以说是我国疫苗行业发展的一个转折点。从批签发数据来看,2016年一类疫苗批签发量增加%,而二类疫苗批签发量下降%。之所以一类疫苗能够保持大幅增长,就是受益于二胎政策的利好。2018年,全国疫苗批签发总量约为亿剂,其中,二类疫苗批签发总量约为亿剂。

最近几年,随着EV71疫苗、HPV疫苗等重磅大品种陆续上市销售,我国疫苗市场结构开始发生变化,产品定位主要在肺炎、HPV和流感三大类,开始从单价疫苗转变到多联多价疫苗以及针对从未被满足需求的新兴疫苗上。未来,我国疫苗行业将会继续延续大品种集中获批和放量的时代。在产品不断升级和创新的大趋势下,很多上市公司都使出了浑身解数来进一步发展和开拓市场。因此,疫苗板块就成为了未来医药行业投资的一大亮点。

In recent years, with the large number of EV71 vaccine, HPV vaccine and other heavy varieties on the market, the market structure of our country's vaccine began to change, the product positioning mainly in pneumonia, HPV and influenza three categories, began to change from the unit price vaccine to polyvalent vaccine and to target the new vaccine that has never been met the demand. In the future, China's vaccine industry will continue to large varieties of concentrated approval and release of the era. Under the trend of continuous product upgrading and innovation, many listed companies have tried their best to further develop and open up the market. Therefore, the vaccine sector has become a bright spot for future pharmaceutical industry investment.

我们都知道,疫苗作为医药行业的其中一个细分领域,同样具有技术壁垒高、研发投入多等特点。从疫苗行业的发展趋势来看,具有核心竞争力强、大品种多、销售能力强的上市公司,就会成为我们选股的标的。

As we all know, vaccine as one of the subdivision of the pharmaceutical industry, also has high technical barriers, R


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