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中国正奔向负利率时代,房地产价值或将再次显现!
2020-01-07 23:58   来源:  www.myviphealth.com   评论:0 点击:

中国正奔向负利率时代,房地产价值或将再次显现!2020年伊始,中国迎来了首轮全面降准。1月1日,央行宣布于

2020年伊始,中国迎来了首轮全面降准。1月1日,央行宣布于2020年1月6日下调金融机构存款准备金率个百分点,释放长期资金约8000多亿元,直接支持实体经济。

At the beginning of 2020, China has ushered in the first round of overall reductions. On Jan.

一方面,今年以来全球多个经济体陆续降息,有的采取了零利率甚至负利率。美国今年也连续3个月下调利率75个基点。在这种低利率环境下,中国再次跟进降息只是时间问题。

On the one hand, interest rates have been cut in various economies around the world since this year, some of them adopt zero or even negative interest rates. The United States has also cut interest rates by 75 basis points for three consecutive months this year. In this low interest rate environment, it is just a matter of time for China to follow up again.

另一方面,去年下半年以来居民消费价格指数(CPI)持续上涨,11月已突破%,创2012年1月以来新高。虽然CPI上行受猪肉影响较大,但相比持续下滑的理财收益率来说,物价还是在上行周期内。

On the other hand, the consumer price index (CPI) has continued to rise since the second half of last year and has broken through% in November, hitting a record since January 2012. Although the CPI is more affected by pork, prices are still in the upward cycle compared to the declining financial returns.

当名义利率(市场利率)低于通货膨胀率(CPI)时,实际利率(投资收益率)则为负利率。现在的情况就是这样,市场利率持续走低,CPI持续走高,导致资金希望寻求更高的资产收益。

When the nominal interest rate (market interest rate) is lower than the inflation rate (CPI), the real interest rate (return on investment) is negative. This is the case now, when market interest rates continue to fall and CPI continues to rise, leading money to seek higher asset gains.

把负利率演绎到极致的是日本(实行零利率政策),一般来说你把钱存在银行,银行用你钱去投资,放贷,然后给你利息作为回报;然而未来却是你把钱存银行,非但没有利息,反而你还要给银行收利息和管理费。

It's japan that takes negative interest rates to their fullest (zero-interest-rate policy), where you generally put your money in the bank, where you use your money to invest, lend, and then pay you interest; but in the future it's you who put your money in the bank, and instead of interest, you charge the bank interest and management fees.

理论上,负利率时代来临,现金存款变相贬值,资金会不断流入其他投资领域,使得房地产市场的投资价值开始凸显。理由如下:

In theory, when the era of negative interest rates comes, the disguised depreciation of cash deposits will continue to flow into other areas of investment, making the value of investment in the real estate market begin to highlight. The reasons are as follows:

首先,房产是实物不动产,在货币贬值情况下,实物资产可以起到保值或升值的作用。其次,市场利率的走低,使得房企融资成本降低。因为房地产是典型的资金密集型行业,负利率使得房企融资成本进一步下降,有利于房地产企业更容易获得资金来实现扩张。再者,老百姓在负利率情况下,更倾向于理财基金、房地产等资产,以寻求更高的收益。

First of all, real estate is physical real estate, in the case of currency depreciation, physical assets can play the role of value preservation or appreciation. Second, lower market interest rates have reduced the cost of housing financing. Because real estate is a typical capital-intensive industry, negative interest rates further reduce the cost of housing financing, which is conducive to real estate enterprises to obtain more funds to achieve expansion. Moreover, people in the case of negative interest rates, more inclined to wealth management funds, real estate and other assets to seek higher returns.

国家统计局历史数据显示,1987年以来,在我国4次负利率期间,国内商品房平均价格分别上涨了60%、34%、%以及15%。也就是说,当市场利率趋于下行的话,房地产上涨的概率更大。

According to the historical data of the National Bureau of Statistics, during the four negative interest rates in China since 1987, the average price of domestic commercial housing has increased by 60%,34%,% and 15% respectively. That is, when market interest rates tend to fall, real estate is more likely to rise.

但我认为,此轮房地产市场周期与此前普涨的市场格局不一样,因为在这轮房地产周期上涨前期,刚需较多的一二线城市房价上涨速度很快,三四线城市房价因为棚改货币化,同样也上涨了不少。但现在看来,楼市调控并无全面放松迹象,房贷利率甚至在利率大环境向下的背景下依然维持在高位。

But I think this round of real estate market cycle is not the same as the previous general rise in the market pattern, because in the early period of this round of real estate cycle, more rigid demand in the first and second tier city house prices rise quickly, third and fourth tier city house prices because of the monetization of shed reform, also rose a lot. But now there is no sign of full relaxation in the housing market, and mortgage rates remain high even in the context of a downward trend in interest rates.

此外,目前国内城市发展分化情况现象严重,三四线城市由于棚改任务“打折”面临着去库存压力,房地产行业供求差异大。因此房地产在此轮负利率行情下,即使政策有边际宽松,也很难出现之前的普涨行情。

In addition, the current domestic urban development differentiation phenomenon is serious, the third and fourth tier cities because of the shed reform task \"discount\" facing destocking pressure, real estate industry supply and demand difference. So real estate in this round of negative interest rate market, even if the policy is marginally loose, it is difficult to appear before the rally.

负利率时代对于老百姓来说,首选是保险产品,因为未来随着市场利率越来越低,保费会越来越贵。保险产品的本质是现金流贴现,低利率意味着未来保险公司付给你的现值高了,同时保费的收益低了,而保险公司为了维持收益,自然就要提高保费。欧日经验告诉我们,在负利率时,保险和养老基金会得到居民的青睐,同时保险和养老金在投资范围方面也更加偏好权益资产,以提高收益。

In the era of negative interest rates, the first choice for ordinary people is insurance products, because in the future, as market interest rates become lower and lower, premiums will become more expensive. The essence of insurance products is cash flow discounting, and low interest rates mean that the present value of future insurance companies pay you is higher, and the benefits of premiums are lower, and insurance companies will naturally raise premiums in order to maintain the benefits. The european and japanese experience tells us that insurance and pension funds are favored by residents at negative interest rates, while insurance and pensions are more likely to invest in equity assets to boost returns.

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